Tue, Apr 5, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 6, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 29 | 312 | 632 |
| MTL | 111 | 211 | 08 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:31MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 15:20OTTAustin WatsonUnassisted · Slap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 7:18OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 7:49MTLJustin BarronUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 14:20OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 16:25MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 0:29OTTDrake BathersonPPGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 11:30OTTColin WhiteAssists: Drake Batherson, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–3
- P3 15:56OTTAustin WatsonENAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Erik Brannstrom · Backhand, 0.66 xG6–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:31OTTBrady Tkachuk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 12:13MTLDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P2 7:12MTLCole Caufield: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:40OTTConnor Brown: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:48MTLNick Suzuki: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:03OTTTravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:00MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:00MTLBrendan Gallagher: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:00MTLJoel Edmundson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:00OTTDrake Batherson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – White – Kelly10:42
xG 0.52–0.09 (85%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Joseph – Norris – Tkachuk9:25
xG 0.49–0.36 (57%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Watson – Gaudette – Gambrell8:03
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Formenton – Batherson – Stützle9:38
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Zub14:14
xG 0.80–0.67 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Holden – Zaitsev14:57
xG 0.81–0.87 (48%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Hamonic16:27
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Poehling – Ylonen6:52
xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Anderson – Evans11:04
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Byron – Armia – Dvorak7:36
xG 0.12–0.26 (32%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Suzuki – Caufield12:01
xG 0.31–1.11 (22%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Harris16:13
xG 1.28–0.16 (89%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Romanov14:41
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Schueneman – Barron13:15
xG 0.28–1.01 (22%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).