Tue, Apr 5, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Colorado Avalanche 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 210 | 311 | 632 |
| PIT | 119 | 111 | 216 | 446 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:45COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 5:30PITBryan RustAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 9:53COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Alex Newhook, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 12:00COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 17:43PITEvan RodriguesUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 1:01COLJosh MansonAssists: Devon Toews, J.T. Compher · Slap, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 15:03COLDarren HelmGWGAssists: Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–2
- P3 18:36PITJake GuentzelAssists: Jeff Carter, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 19:07COLArtturi LehkonenENAssists: Darren Helm, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.70 xG6–3
- P3 19:29PITMike MathesonAssists: Danton Heinen, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.00 xG6–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:04PITBrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:20COLBowen Byram: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:06PITRickard Rakell: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:52COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:39PITEvan Rodrigues: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – O'Connor – Sturm8:39
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Helm – MacDermid – Aube-Kubel2:59
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Compher – Lehkonen – Newhook11:26
xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Burakovsky – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:23
xG 0.65–1.16 (36%)attempts 15–19goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Byram2:49
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Toews2:57
xG 0.30–0.08 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 2–0
- Toews – Makar4:29
xG 0.18–0.22 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Kapanen – Rodrigues9:28
xG 0.64–0.09 (88%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:41
xG 0.97–0.64 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 1–2
- Carter – Malkin – Rakell12:27
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Boyle – Heinen – Angello5:53
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ruhwedel11:17
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Pettersson – Marino11:12
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin15:24
xG 0.48–0.55 (46%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).