Thu, Apr 7, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 216 | 115 | 110 | 441 |
| SJS | 112 | 011 | 110 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:19CGYMatthew TkachukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 14:29SJSNick BoninoAssists: Jaycob Megna, Matt Nieto · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 19:05CGYTrevor LewisAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 13:28CGYElias LindholmGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 5:24SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Timo Meier, Mario Ferraro · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 19:28CGYElias LindholmENAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:12SJSSasha Chmelevski: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:44CGYDillon Dube: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:16SJSNoah Gregor: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:23CGYTrevor Lewis: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:12CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:52SJSNick Bonino: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Lewis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:30
xG 0.92–0.32 (74%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Lucic – Ritchie – Carpenter10:36
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Lewis – Coleman – Dube10:24
xG 0.87–0.84 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Backlund – Toffoli – Mangiapane8:26
xG 0.14–0.37 (28%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson17:02
xG 1.60–0.56 (74%)attempts 28–14goals 2–0
- Tanev – Mackey13:54
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Stone – Välimäki12:24
xG 0.31–0.83 (27%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Meier – Barabanov12:04
xG 1.23–0.55 (69%)attempts 19–13goals 0–2
- Bonino – Nieto – Balcers9:35
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Dahlen – Viel – Reedy6:19
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Couture – Gregor – Chmelevski9:45
xG 0.18–1.26 (13%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Megna12:49
xG 0.91–0.67 (58%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Burns – Karlsson2:18
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ferraro16:03
xG 0.87–1.19 (42%)attempts 21–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).