Sat, Apr 9, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 211 | 07 | 226 |
| TOR | 218 | 110 | 012 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:32TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mark Giordano, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 13:59TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Michael Bunting, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 5:58MTLJoel EdmundsonAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 8:07TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 18:03MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 13:59TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:59MTLChris Wideman: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:59MTLChris Wideman: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:59MTLChris Wideman: Misconduct10 min
- P2 2:54MTLMichael Pezzetta: Holding2 min
- P2 3:41TORJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:09MTLAlexander Romanov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:59TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:11TORMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P3 11:01MTLTyler Pitlick: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:17MTLNick Suzuki: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:02TORPierre Engvall: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Armia – Dvorak9:37
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Anderson – Evans9:10
xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Dauphin – Pezzetta4:37
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Suzuki – Caufield11:31
xG 0.06–1.40 (4%)attempts 2–26goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Wideman – Harris7:42
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Petry – Romanov2:39
xG 0.04–0.07 (37%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Savard – Edmundson2:10
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews10:21
xG 0.66–0.33 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Nylander – Engvall – Kampf7:44
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Nylander – Marner – Matthews2:20
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Mikheyev8:50
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Brodie12:48
xG 0.68–0.14 (83%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin12:32
xG 0.78–0.43 (64%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Rielly2:47
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).