Sat, Apr 9, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 2, Edmonton Oilers 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 05 | 118 | 00 | 1 | 234 |
| EDM | 010 | 016 | 113 | 011 | 0 | 150 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:24EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Darnell Nurse · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 14:53COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Devon Toews · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. EDM Connor McDavid stopped
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
- 3. EDM Leon Draisaitl stopped
- 4. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
- 5. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 11:49COLAndre Burakovsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:47EDMEvan Bouchard: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:36EDMEvan Bouchard: Interference2 min
- OT 2:29COLNathan MacKinnon: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – Compher – Lehkonen4:46
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor7:45
xG 0.24–0.14 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen6:02
xG 0.20–0.21 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Compher – Lehkonen – Nichushkin6:33
xG 0.40–0.46 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Byram2:25
xG 0.33–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Girard – Makar2:33
xG 0.23–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Makar – Byram2:27
xG 0.12–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – Yamamoto14:08
xG 1.04–0.44 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Brassard – Kassian – McLeod7:10
xG 0.26–0.06 (81%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Kane – McDavid – Puljujarvi15:44
xG 0.98–0.93 (51%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele – Ryan9:55
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Bouchard14:37
xG 0.94–0.69 (58%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse20:45
xG 0.90–0.84 (52%)attempts 20–21goals 1–1
- Barrie – Kulak15:36
xG 0.55–0.52 (52%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).