Sun, Apr 10, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 4, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 15 | 212 | 18 | 425 |
| OTT | 112 | 08 | 214 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 18:49WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 1:47WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 9:34WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 0:50OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Colin White, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 5:37WPGKyle ConnorPPGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 13:58OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Josh Norris, Erik Brannstrom · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:32WPGEvgeny Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:03OTTErik Brannstrom: Interference2 min
- P1 19:58OTTArtem Zub: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 19:01WPGZachary Sanford: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:13OTTMathieu Joseph: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:26OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:43WPGNeal Pionk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:37WPGMason Appleton: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Scheifele – Ehlers8:04
xG 0.77–0.30 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Lowry – Sanford – Appleton8:52
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Stastny – Ehlers – Barron2:31
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Toninato – Brooks – Barron3:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Samberg12:08
xG 0.87–0.40 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:25
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Pionk13:48
xG 0.19–0.54 (26%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestJoseph – Norris – Tkachuk10:19
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Brown – Formenton – Stützle7:43
xG 0.53–0.17 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Tierney – Gaudette – Gambrell7:07
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Watson – White – Kelly6:20
xG 0.03–0.47 (5%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Zub15:26
xG 0.86–0.15 (85%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Mete14:38
xG 0.48–0.76 (39%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Holden – Zaitsev11:49
xG 0.20–0.52 (27%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).