Sun, Apr 10, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 011 | 08 | 028 |
| TBL | 29 | 29 | 110 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:21TBLCorey PerryGWGAssists: Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 9:38TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Brayden Point · Snap, 0.25 xG0–2
- P2 1:12TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 4:28TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 2:09TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nick Paul · Snap, 0.17 xG0–5
Penalties (4)
- P3 7:15BUFMattias Samuelsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:31TBLMikhail Sergachev: Holding2 min
- P3 15:55BUFMattias Samuelsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:46TBLAlex Killorn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson11:51
xG 0.66–0.45 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Bjork – Cozens9:58
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs10:04
xG 0.07–0.45 (14%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt10:27
xG 0.37–1.17 (24%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Dahlin3:06
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Bryson2:17
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Bryson2:34
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point12:59
xG 0.75–0.24 (76%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Colton11:09
xG 0.97–0.54 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare9:19
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Killorn – Cirelli – Hagel11:02
xG 0.37–0.71 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Sergachev14:42
xG 1.62–0.21 (89%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Hedman – Rutta12:34
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak16:11
xG 0.58–0.81 (42%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).