Sun, Apr 10, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Nashville Predators 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 111 | 012 | 112 | 00 | 235 |
| PIT | 13 | 012 | 113 | 12 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rickard Rakell, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 18:49NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 4:31NSHNick CousinsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 8:53PITJason ZuckerAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 2:21PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P2 7:54NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:54PITMike Matheson: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:24NSHAlexandre Carrier: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:39PITKasperi Kapanen: Interference2 min
- P2 16:28PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 0:00NSHMark Borowiecki: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:25PITBrian Boyle: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Jeannot12:45
xG 0.89–0.39 (70%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Tomasino8:25
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Tolvanen10:08
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Cousins – Kunin – Luff7:13
xG 0.10–0.64 (14%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Benning3:42
xG 0.54–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Carrier13:17
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Benning8:13
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Carter – Kapanen – Rodrigues8:38
xG 0.46–0.45 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:18
xG 0.48–0.56 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell12:24
xG 0.30–0.50 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Boyle – Blueger – Heinen6:41
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Pettersson10:53
xG 0.75–0.47 (62%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Letang – Matheson15:58
xG 0.65–0.60 (52%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Dumoulin – Marino16:11
xG 0.48–0.67 (42%)attempts 10–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).