Tue, Apr 12, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 19 | 38 | 425 |
| NYR | 014 | 17 | 19 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:03NYRK'Andre MillerAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Frank Vatrano · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 13:38CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 1:02CARSeth JarvisAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brady Skjei · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 6:42CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 18:22NYRChris KreiderAssists: Andrew Copp, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 19:54CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.77 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:28CARBrady Skjei: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:24CARBrett Pesce: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:21NYRFrank Vatrano: Holding2 min
- P2 9:49CARBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:42CARTony DeAngelo: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:21NYRRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goodrow won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Teravainen – Necas9:36
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Martinook – Domi – Lorentz6:20
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis10:46
xG 0.54–0.64 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast11:09
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – DeAngelo14:21
xG 0.81–0.58 (58%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Smith10:26
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce17:23
xG 0.54–0.64 (46%)attempts 17–13goals 2–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Kakko – Lafrenière9:01
xG 0.38–0.08 (82%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vatrano10:58
xG 0.43–0.33 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Reaves – Hunt – Rooney7:24
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Strome – Copp – Panarin11:03
xG 0.45–0.68 (40%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller15:59
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Braun – Schneider12:42
xG 0.30–0.49 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:32
xG 0.24–0.66 (27%)attempts 11–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).