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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 14, 2022·United Center, Chicago

San Jose Sharks 4, Chicago Blackhawks 5 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.

CHI winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
SJS11218216010437
CHI11121116041532

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:18CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 4:45SJSTimo MeierAssists: Tomas Hertl, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:35CHITaylor RaddyshPPAssists: Seth Jones, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
  4. P2 15:53SJSScott ReedyAssists: Matt Nieto, Sasha Chmelevski · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P2 18:42CHICalvin de HaanAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P3 4:07CHIDylan StromeAssists: Seth Jones, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
  7. P3 5:40SJSRudolfs BalcersAssists: Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
  8. P3 16:35SJSJaycob MegnaAssists: Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
  2. 2. SJS Tomas Hertl stopped
  3. 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
  4. 4. SJS Logan Couture stopped
  5. 5. CHI Alex DeBrincat scored
  6. 6. SJS Erik Karlsson stopped
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 7:06SJSJeffrey Viel: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 7:06CHIRiley Stillman: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 2:03SJSRudolfs Balcers: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 13:21CHIJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 13:21SJSNoah Gregor: Roughing2 min · PPG
  6. P2 13:21SJSJeffrey Viel: Cross checking2 min
  7. P2 17:41CHIJake McCabe: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  8. P2 17:41SJSNicolas Meloche: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  9. P3 6:24CHICalvin de Haan: Interference2 min
  10. P3 12:46SJSJaycob Megna: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
48% to win52% to win
← SJS attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Couture
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSCHI
37Shots on goal32
2.9Expected goals3.4
68Shot attempts62
22Faceoffs won39
1Power plays3
15Penalty minutes11
24Hits29
16Blocked shots22
16Giveaways12
9Takeaways10

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

San Jose Sharks

Forward lines

  1. bestHertl – Meier – Barabanov9:45

    xG 0.84–0.35 (70%)attempts 17–6goals 2–2

  2. Bonino – Couture – Balcers12:44

    xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0

  3. Nieto – Hertl – Meier3:04

    xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  4. Nieto – Gregor – Chmelevski6:28

    xG 0.03–0.28 (10%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestKarlsson – Megna14:47

    xG 1.01–0.35 (74%)attempts 24–13goals 2–0

  2. Burns – Ferraro14:49

    xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0

  3. Megna – Ferraro2:12

    xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0

Chicago Blackhawks

Forward lines

  1. bestKane – Strome – DeBrincat15:37

    xG 0.63–0.31 (67%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0

  2. Katchouk – Entwistle – Johnson10:37

    xG 0.45–0.52 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1

  3. Lafferty – Dach – Reichel7:07

    xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 3–8goals 0–2

  4. Toews – Raddysh – Kurashev9:37

    xG 0.34–0.52 (39%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMcCabe – Jones4:05

    xG 0.36–0.06 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0

  2. de Haan – Jones2:34

    xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  3. de Haan – Vlasic12:44

    xG 0.24–0.29 (46%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.4 xGSJS 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHISJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #62 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.57 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.

CHI winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).