Tue, Apr 12, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Seattle Kraken 3, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 18 | 27 | 07 | 322 |
| CGY | 112 | 09 | 410 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:13SEARyan DonatoAssists: Matty Beniers, Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 16:51CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 3:06SEAVictor RaskAssists: Yanni Gourde, Kole Lind · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 17:10SEAAdam LarssonAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Joonas Donskoi · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 3:10CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 5:33CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Elias Lindholm, Connor Mackey · Snap, 0.24 xG3–3
- P3 14:10CGYNoah HanifinPPGWGAssists: Michael Stone, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:17CGYMatthew TkachukENAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.65 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:59SEAVince Dunn: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:31SEAAdam Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:29CGYConnor Mackey: Interference2 min
- P3 2:07SEAVince Dunn: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:14SEAYanni Gourde: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:11SEAJoonas Donskoi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:22CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Kneeing2 min
- P3 19:17SEAJared McCann: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Donato – Beniers13:40
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Wennberg – McCann – Kuhlman10:33
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Rask – Gourde – Lind9:18
xG 0.46–0.40 (53%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Sheahan – Donskoi – Geekie6:15
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn16:56
xG 1.01–0.28 (78%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Oleksiak – Borgen13:16
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Soucy – Fleury11:33
xG 0.66–0.47 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Mangiapane3:41
xG 0.33–0.06 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Lewis – Coleman – Dube8:01
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Toffoli – Coleman3:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk8:14
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Mackey3:58
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Tanev – Zadorov13:16
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Stone – Mackey6:00
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).