Thu, Apr 14, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Washington Capitals 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 04 | 210 | 111 | 325 |
| TOR | 211 | 415 | 16 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37TORMichael BuntingAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 13:45TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Pierre Engvall, Jake Muzzin · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 10:06WSHJohn CarlsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 10:19TORIlya LyubushkinAssists: Morgan Rielly, John Tavares · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 10:37TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.25 xG1–4
- P2 14:44TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Auston Matthews, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–5
- P2 16:25TORMichael BuntingAssists: Pierre Engvall · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–6
- P2 19:07WSHTom WilsonAssists: Lars Eller, John Carlson · Slap, 0.07 xG2–6
- P3 1:27TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–7
- P3 11:58WSHNic DowdAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–7
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:56TORAlexander Kerfoot: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:26WSHTom Wilson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:59WSHT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:42TORTimothy Liljegren: Holding2 min
- P2 2:33WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:24WSHMatt Irwin: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:24TORPierre Engvall: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:29WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:29TORKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:16TORJake Muzzin: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:42WSHJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:09TORMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:41WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Larsson – Hathaway8:06
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 1–2
- Eller – Wilson – Mantha6:43
xG 0.39–0.15 (71%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Johansson9:23
xG 0.11–0.24 (32%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary7:20
xG 0.00–0.52 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Jensen – Fehérváry2:15
xG 0.02–0.08 (22%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Schultz – Irwin11:00
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Jensen – van Riemsdyk10:37
xG 0.62–0.69 (48%)attempts 6–17goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Mikheyev6:18
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Nylander – Engvall – Kampf7:18
xG 0.25–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews8:33
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Clifford – Blackwell6:05
xG 0.13–0.57 (19%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Brodie11:11
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–1goals 2–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin10:50
xG 0.44–0.22 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Brodie – Rielly2:15
xG 0.11–0.04 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).