Thu, Apr 14, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Anaheim Ducks 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 06 | 311 | 07 | 02 | 326 |
| TBL | 211 | 08 | 110 | 12 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 16:42TBLAlex KillornAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 3:42ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 10:19ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 10:41ANATroy TerryAssists: Andrej Sustr, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:47TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Corey Perry, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 1:58TBLAnthony CirelliGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:34ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:11ANATroy Terry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:53TBLCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:41ANATroy Terry: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Perry won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMilano – Aston-Reese – Lundeström5:37
xG 0.40–0.19 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Henrique – Mayhew7:10
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Carrick – Simon – Steel7:59
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Henrique – Terry6:23
xG 0.49–0.58 (46%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestVaakanainen – Drysdale14:55
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Sustr – Mahura13:50
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Fowler16:23
xG 0.71–0.95 (43%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Colton8:14
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare8:14
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Killorn – Cirelli – Hagel9:57
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Kucherov – Paul – Point9:57
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Foote10:16
xG 0.30–0.20 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak16:07
xG 0.72–0.79 (47%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Hedman – Rutta11:57
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).