Thu, Apr 14, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 119 | 210 | 339 |
| PIT | 213 | 15 | 310 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59PITKris LetangAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 8:52PITDanton HeinenAssists: Brian Boyle, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 5:51NYIZach PariseAssists: Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 12:10PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 10:44PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 17:23NYIAnders LeeAssists: Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 17:59PITBrock McGinnENAssists: Jeff Carter, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.79 xG2–5
- P3 18:52NYIZdeno CharaAssists: Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 19:50PITJake GuentzelENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:46PITDanton Heinen: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:26PITMark Friedman: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 14:37NYIZach Parise: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:13PITBrock McGinn: Interference2 min
- P2 18:01NYIAdam Pelech: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:24PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:49NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Barzal – Bellows9:09
xG 0.54–0.47 (53%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Martin – Cizikas – Johnston6:49
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Bailey – Palmieri – Pageau7:50
xG 0.24–0.31 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier9:37
xG 0.22–0.91 (19%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Hutton3:49
xG 0.63–0.26 (71%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Greene – Pelech2:16
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Pulock2:39
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel14:00
xG 1.21–0.48 (72%)attempts 19–11goals 3–0
- Boyle – Kapanen – Rodrigues3:57
xG 0.21–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Zucker – Rust9:18
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Blueger – McGinn – Heinen7:14
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Matheson13:20
xG 1.20–0.52 (70%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Dumoulin – Marino13:21
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Ruhwedel – Friedman7:47
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).