Sat, Apr 16, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 16 | 111 | 114 | 331 |
| NSH | 17 | 219 | 18 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22NSHEeli TolvanenAssists: Philip Tomasino, Cody Glass · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 7:31CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:15CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Jake McCabe, Lukas Reichel · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 5:58NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 19:34NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 3:14NSHMikael GranlundGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Dante Fabbro · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 14:31CHIRiley StillmanAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:17CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:30NSHMatt Duchene: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 19:19NSHMatt Duchene: Interference2 min
- P2 5:33CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:33CHIBoris Katchouk: Misconduct10 min
- P2 5:33NSHMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:00NSHPhilip Tomasino: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:12CHIAlec Regula: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKatchouk – Entwistle – Johnson6:40
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Toews – Johnson – Raddysh7:51
xG 0.44–0.18 (72%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Lafferty – Reichel6:02
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat13:39
xG 0.25–1.06 (19%)attempts 7–19goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Stillman3:42
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- McCabe – Regula13:15
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
- Jones – Vlasic5:01
xG 0.04–0.29 (11%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGlass – Tolvanen – Tomasino7:06
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Forsberg2:16
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg9:43
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Johansen – Trenin – Jeannot3:29
xG 0.03–0.01 (81%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Carrier7:00
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Fabbro2:30
xG 0.29–0.04 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Josi – Fabbro8:26
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).