Mon, Apr 18, 2022·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 115 | 324 | 112 | 551 |
| ARI | 07 | 314 | 05 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01CARVincent TrocheckAssists: Brady Skjei, Martin Necas · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 1:47CARJesper FastUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 4:43CARMax DomiAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P2 6:32ARINick RitchieAssists: Nate Smith, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 11:52CARNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Max Domi, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 16:15ARILoui ErikssonAssists: Kyle Capobianco, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P2 18:42ARIAlex GalchenyukAssists: Kyle Capobianco, Travis Boyd · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 8:10CARSebastian AhoAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:32CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:07CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:22ARIBarrett Hayton: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:09CARMax Domi: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:03CARSeth Jarvis: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Fast – Domi9:58
xG 1.33–0.18 (88%)attempts 14–6goals 3–1
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis12:41
xG 1.19–0.35 (77%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Necas – Svechnikov13:23
xG 0.92–0.20 (82%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Stepan – Martinook – Lorentz7:50
xG 0.95–0.46 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – DeAngelo15:57
xG 1.99–0.48 (80%)attempts 27–12goals 1–1
- Smith – Bear11:42
xG 1.46–0.42 (78%)attempts 24–10goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce14:12
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 2–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Hayton – Maccelli11:04
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Kessel – Ritchie – Smith7:33
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Boyd – Galchenyuk – McBain9:22
xG 0.42–1.32 (24%)attempts 9–20goals 1–1
- Eriksson – Ladd – Beagle9:17
xG 0.16–2.04 (7%)attempts 5–18goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Stralman – Gostisbehere15:51
xG 0.30–0.88 (25%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
- Capobianco – Kolyachonok12:45
xG 0.40–1.05 (27%)attempts 10–21goals 1–1
- Mayo – Moser15:08
xG 0.44–2.52 (15%)attempts 11–27goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).