Tue, Apr 19, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 015 | 114 | 110 | 239 |
| TOR | 012 | 38 | 29 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:35TORTimothy LiljegrenAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 8:07PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Keith Yandle, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 13:39TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 19:35TORJason SpezzaGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 10:11TORDavid KampfAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Ilya Mikheyev · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 17:24PHIRonnie AttardAssists: Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 18:27TORIlya MikheyevENAssists: Pierre Engvall, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:37PHIKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:01PHIZack MacEwen: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:05TORDavid Kampf: Holding2 min
- P2 12:49PHIIvan Provorov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:39TORNick Abruzzese: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:52PHIKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:18PHITravis Sanheim: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:26TORTJ Brodie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:56TORIlya Lyubushkin: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:56PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Frost – Cates4:38
xG 0.23–0.05 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Brink3:52
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Konecny4:24
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Farabee – Brink4:08
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Attard7:28
xG 0.94–0.35 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Provorov – Attard3:10
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Attard2:26
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Simmonds – Kampf5:30
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev3:14
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Bunting – Marner2:44
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Nylander – Abruzzese2:38
xG 0.03–0.02 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren11:42
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Brodie – Holl15:21
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin12:56
xG 0.68–1.21 (36%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).