Wed, Apr 20, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Colorado Avalanche 2, Seattle Kraken 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 07 | 110 | 227 |
| SEA | 311 | 012 | 06 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12SEAKole LindAssists: Will Borgen, Victor Rask · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 5:23SEAJordan EberleAssists: Matty Beniers, Ryan Donato · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 14:44SEAYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Jared McCann, Karson Kuhlman · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–3
- P1 17:37COLCale MakarAssists: Nazem Kadri, J.T. Compher · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 16:40COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:05COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:26SEACarson Soucy: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:40SEARyan Donato: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin12:30
xG 0.59–0.31 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor5:53
xG 0.21–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Compher – Sturm – Newhook2:50
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Sturm – Newhook – Meyers2:23
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Byram14:44
xG 0.77–0.44 (63%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Manson – Girard12:43
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Johnson – Girard2:02
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestRask – Wennberg – Lind12:22
xG 0.93–0.08 (92%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Gourde – McCann – Kuhlman14:52
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Eberle – Donato – Beniers9:15
xG 0.24–0.27 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Donskoi – Sprong7:05
xG 0.18–0.22 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn18:35
xG 1.09–0.28 (79%)attempts 24–17goals 1–1
- Oleksiak – Borgen14:44
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Soucy – Fleury12:52
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).