Thu, Apr 21, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Winnipeg Jets 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 27 | 010 | 05 | 222 |
| CAR | 015 | 119 | 312 | 446 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:10WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 18:55WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 19:30CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 4:10CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 8:21CARSeth JarvisGWGAssists: Brendan Smith, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
- P3 19:13CARJordan StaalENAssists: Jesper Fast, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:49CARJordan Martinook: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:15CARBrendan Smith: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:11WPGPaul Stastny: Holding2 min
- P1 10:10WPGEvgeny Svechnikov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:46WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:21WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:21CARVincent Trocheck: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:57WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:21WPGJansen Harkins: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Sanford – Dubois13:13
xG 0.98–0.79 (55%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Lowry – Appleton – Barron7:16
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Toninato – Harkins – Svechnikov2:53
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Stastny – Ehlers – Connor13:18
xG 0.52–1.22 (30%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Samberg10:10
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey14:30
xG 0.91–0.65 (58%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Samberg – Pionk2:41
xG 0.01–0.01 (58%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Necas – Svechnikov11:14
xG 1.28–0.37 (78%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Martinook – Domi – Lorentz4:16
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis11:43
xG 0.79–0.95 (46%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast9:23
xG 0.30–0.72 (29%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Smith11:16
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo11:57
xG 1.10–0.76 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce13:39
xG 0.56–0.87 (39%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).