Thu, Apr 21, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 2, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 011 | 18 | 14 | 223 |
| CGY | 011 | 113 | 313 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:06CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 11:53DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: John Klingberg, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 0:20CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 5:29DALLuke GlendeningAssists: Fredrik Karlstrom · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
- P3 13:05CGYChris TanevGWGAssists: Oliver Kylington, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 19:35CGYAndrew MangiapaneENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:30CGYElias Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:28DALRoope Hintz: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:48DALRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:24CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:51CGYRasmus Andersson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:18CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:17DALRadek Faksa: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 11:46CGYErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:53DALMiro Heiskanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:28DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Studenic – Kiviranta7:47
xG 0.86–0.30 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Glendening – Karlstrom – Peterson5:28
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:20
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Raffl9:07
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Harley8:46
xG 0.34–0.06 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell12:45
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Heiskanen17:35
xG 0.87–0.85 (50%)attempts 17–19goals 1–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk12:14
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Coleman – Dube8:19
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Ritchie6:14
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Backlund – Toffoli – Mangiapane8:08
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 15–5goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Kylington14:17
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson14:01
xG 0.40–0.72 (36%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Zadorov12:33
xG 0.46–0.88 (34%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).