Sat, Apr 23, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Nashville Predators 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 19 | 04 | 221 |
| TBL | 313 | 111 | 215 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:51TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 10:59TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 17:18NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 19:40TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 10:42NSHAlexandre CarrierPPAssists: Philip Tomasino, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 13:58TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 1:37TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Victor Hedman, Nick Paul · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 2:08TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:14NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 3:10NSHMatt Luff: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:10TBLMikhail Sergachev: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:20TBLPatrick Maroon: Elbowing2 min
- P1 12:58NSHNick Cousins: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:58TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:56TBLCal Foote: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:14NSHTanner Jeannot: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:01TBLPatrick Maroon: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:45TBLPatrick Maroon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:24TBLJan Rutta: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:24NSHNick Cousins: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:07
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- McCarron – Kunin – Luff2:38
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- McCarron – Luff – Tomasino5:34
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Johansen – Cousins – Kunin5:36
xG 0.18–0.64 (22%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Josi – Fabbro16:18
xG 0.32–0.78 (29%)attempts 14–17goals 0–2
- Borowiecki – Benning11:58
xG 0.18–0.68 (21%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Carrier14:04
xG 0.45–1.13 (29%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Cirelli – Hagel9:18
xG 1.08–0.30 (78%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Kucherov8:48
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Point2:21
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Colton2:00
xG 0.01–0.08 (13%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak9:36
xG 1.15–0.30 (79%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Sergachev – Rutta3:37
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Foote6:05
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).