Sat, Apr 23, 2022·Prudential Center, Newark
Carolina Hurricanes 3, New Jersey Devils 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 09 | 29 | 12 | 329 |
| NJD | 06 | 15 | 18 | 00 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:43NJDYegor SharangovichPPAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Damon Severson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 8:30NJDNico HischierAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Nikita Okhotiuk · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 15:24CARBrady SkjeiUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 18:04CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Jesper Fast, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.47 xG2–2
- OT 1:39CARSeth JarvisGWGAssists: Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:39CARVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:50NJDP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 14:20CARAndrei Svechnikov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 15:45NJDMichael McLeod: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 6:03CARMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:03NJDNikita Okhotiuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:39CARIan Cole: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Fast9:54
xG 0.78–0.28 (73%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Necas – Svechnikov10:42
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Martinook – Domi – Lorentz6:19
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis10:11
xG 0.19–0.30 (38%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce16:11
xG 0.92–0.37 (72%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Cole – Smith9:01
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo18:03
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHischier – Sharangovich – Mercer10:24
xG 0.36–0.27 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Zacha – Kuokkanen – Zetterlund9:07
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Zacha – Zetterlund – Sharangovich2:59
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bastian – McLeod – Foote4:58
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Graves14:49
xG 0.86–0.45 (66%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Bahl14:50
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
- Subban – Okhotiuk10:52
xG 0.04–0.56 (7%)attempts 3–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).