Sun, Apr 24, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 8, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 312 | 28 | 313 | 833 |
| FLA | 211 | 114 | 114 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Patrick Maroon, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 4:31FLASam ReinhartAssists: Anton Lundell, Noel Acciari · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 6:44TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 14:58TBLCal FooteAssists: Brandon Hagel, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P1 17:28FLABrandon MontourUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 0:59FLAMason MarchmentAssists: Claude Giroux, MacKenzie Weegar · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 5:28TBLNick PaulSHAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P2 12:59TBLNick PaulGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 3:34TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.20 xG6–3
- P3 7:04FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.16 xG6–4
- P3 11:36TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.07 xG7–4
- P3 16:34TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.13 xG8–4
Penalties (24)
- P1 6:28FLAEetu Luostarinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:55TBLZach Bogosian: Interference2 min
- P1 12:41TBLBrandon Hagel: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:50FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:39TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:18TBLRoss Colton: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:33FLAMason Marchment: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:52TBLNikita Kucherov: Holding2 min
- P2 13:42FLASam Bennett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:42TBLMikhail Sergachev: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:42FLASam Bennett: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:42TBLMikhail Sergachev: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:42FLAPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:42FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:16FLAMason Marchment: Bench2 min · PPG
- P3 6:50TBLBrayden Point: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:24TBLErik Cernak: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:24FLARyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 16:24FLARyan Lomberg: Instigator2 min
- P3 16:24FLARyan Lomberg: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 16:24FLARyan Lomberg: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:24FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 16:24FLAMason Marchment: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 16:24FLABrandon Montour: Game misconduct head coach0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Paul – Point – Colton2:04
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare5:59
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Kucherov7:11
xG 0.19–0.45 (29%)attempts 4–10goals 1–2
- Killorn – Point – Hagel7:01
xG 0.28–0.84 (25%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Rutta2:59
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Foote7:23
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 7–15goals 3–0
- Hedman – Cernak8:42
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Barkov – Marchment8:26
xG 0.63–0.16 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Acciari – Lundell6:06
xG 0.46–0.08 (86%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen5:16
xG 0.15–0.56 (21%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett7:11
xG 0.30–0.73 (29%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Forsling14:39
xG 0.90–0.60 (60%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Weegar9:25
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Hagg – Montour4:42
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).