Sun, Apr 24, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Carolina Hurricanes 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 210 | 09 | 315 | 534 |
| NYI | 112 | 19 | 05 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:25CARDerek StepanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 8:09CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 18:25NYIRoss JohnstonAssists: Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 15:27NYIRyan PulockPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Kieffer Bellows · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 5:40CARMax DomiGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 17:53CARJesper FastENAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–2
- P3 18:50CARBrendan SmithENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:16NYIKyle Palmieri: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:08NYIZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:08CARMax Domi: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:03CARBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:43CARTony DeAngelo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:50CARJordan Martinook: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00CARMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYIRoss Johnston: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Lorentz – Necas8:10
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast12:39
xG 0.60–0.38 (61%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Martinook – Domi4:10
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis3:56
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Bear12:07
xG 0.92–0.44 (68%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Slavin – DeAngelo16:52
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:16
xG 0.44–0.65 (40%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Parise – Palmieri – Barzal12:26
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Lee – Koivula – Wahlstrom6:56
xG 0.14–0.37 (28%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Bailey – Nelson – Bellows10:00
xG 0.19–0.46 (29%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
- Martin – Cizikas – Johnston11:22
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock14:28
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Greene – Aho10:53
xG 0.62–0.72 (46%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
- Chara – Dobson16:57
xG 0.40–0.87 (31%)attempts 10–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).