Sun, Apr 24, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 17 | 09 | 212 | 02 | 2 | 430 |
| WSH | 113 | 08 | 212 | 04 | 1 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 12:32TORIlya LyubushkinAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 3:32WSHLars EllerAssists: Martin Fehérváry, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 4:40WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Conor Sheary, Justin Schultz · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 12:36TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Carl Dahlstrom, Pierre Engvall · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:02TORJason SpezzaAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 2. TOR Jason Spezza scored
- 3. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 4. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 5. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 6. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 7. WSH Anthony Mantha stopped
- 8. TOR Ilya Mikheyev stopped
- 9. WSH John Carlson stopped
- 10. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
- 11. WSH Marcus Johansson stopped
- 12. TOR Pierre Engvall stopped
- 13. WSH Trevor van Riemsdyk stopped
- 14. TOR Alexander Kerfoot scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:33TORJustin Holl: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:16WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:51TORIlya Lyubushkin: Holding2 min
- P3 13:15WSHLars Eller: Holding2 min
- OT 3:17TORWayne Simmonds: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Kampf – Mikheyev7:53
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Spezza – Simmonds – Clifford6:06
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Nylander – Marner – Matthews7:27
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Marner – Matthews – Abruzzese4:53
xG 0.03–0.10 (24%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Brodie15:11
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 10–15goals 1–2
- Rielly – Lyubushkin14:44
xG 0.49–0.69 (41%)attempts 13–21goals 1–1
- Holl – Dahlstrom13:32
xG 0.39–0.72 (35%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Larsson – Hathaway9:33
xG 0.79–0.14 (85%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Mantha9:52
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Mantha3:16
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Johansson – Sheary10:02
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – van Riemsdyk10:56
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry14:19
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Orlov – Jensen18:59
xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).