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Ice Lab

Mon, Apr 25, 2022·United Center, Chicago

Philadelphia Flyers 1, Chicago Blackhawks 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.

CHI winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI11407013134
CHI21309111333

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:44CHIErik GustafssonAssists: Jonathan Toews, Dominik Kubalik · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:15CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Sam Lafferty · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
  3. P1 8:03PHIKevin HayesAssists: Scott Laughton, Travis Konecny · Slap, 0.23 xG1–2
  4. P3 7:45CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Jake McCabe · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 4:08CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 10:23PHITravis Sanheim: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 14:26CHISam Lafferty: Interference2 min
  4. P2 5:53CHIErik Gustafsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P2 16:16PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 19:02PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 3:09PHIRonnie Attard: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 10:51PHIKevin Hayes: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 18:37CHIJake McCabe: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 19:09CHISam Lafferty: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 19:09PHIJoel Farabee: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
48% to win52% to win
← PHI attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Thompson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHICHI
34Shots on goal33
4.2Expected goals3.8
60Shot attempts58
24Faceoffs won28
4Power plays5
12Penalty minutes10
14Hits16
15Blocked shots13
7Giveaways7
11Takeaways18

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Philadelphia Flyers

Forward lines

  1. bestHayes – Laughton – Konecny2:50

    xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0

  2. van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Brink4:30

    xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0

  3. Hayes – Konecny – Farabee5:38

    xG 0.40–0.37 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1

  4. Thompson – Lindblom – MacEwen8:02

    xG 0.05–0.11 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestProvorov – Attard12:24

    xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1

  2. Yandle – Zamula10:00

    xG 0.44–0.53 (45%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0

  3. Sanheim – Provorov2:01

    xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0

Chicago Blackhawks

Forward lines

  1. bestKane – Strome – DeBrincat10:41

    xG 0.24–0.01 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0

  2. Katchouk – Borgstrom – Johnson6:01

    xG 0.28–0.06 (82%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0

  3. Toews – Johnson – Kubalik10:33

    xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0

  4. Lafferty – Raddysh – Kurashev6:39

    xG 0.49–0.64 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestJones – Vlasic9:57

    xG 0.65–0.26 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0

  2. McCabe – Regula14:12

    xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 6–19goals 1–0

  3. Gustafsson – Vlasic2:16

    xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.8 xGPHI 4.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 19/100 · #1093 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.99 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.

CHI winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).