Tue, Apr 26, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 4, Ottawa Senators 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 214 | 214 | 00 | 441 |
| OTT | 111 | 29 | 111 | 13 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:43OTTThomas ChabotPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 0:11OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 8:52NJDNolan FooteAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Reilly Walsh · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 16:41OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris · Snap, 0.30 xG1–3
- P2 19:54NJDNolan FooteAssists: Pavel Zacha, Ty Smith · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 6:34OTTTim StützleSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 7:29NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Jesper Bratt · Slap, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 10:15NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: Damon Severson · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 3:17OTTDrake BathersonGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Erik Brannstrom · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:40OTTArtem Zub: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:13NJDJanne Kuokkanen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:44NJDDamon Severson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:12OTTScott Sabourin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:06NJDDawson Mercer: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mercer won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Zetterlund – Foote12:32
xG 1.02–0.50 (67%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Kuokkanen – Boqvist – Sharangovich5:45
xG 0.50–0.24 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Geertsen – Bastian – McLeod7:55
xG 0.49–0.28 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Kuokkanen – Boqvist6:57
xG 0.37–0.39 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Graves11:39
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Smith5:17
xG 0.68–0.47 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Severson – Graves6:32
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Gambrell – Kelly9:55
xG 0.95–0.22 (81%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk14:35
xG 0.60–0.56 (52%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Tierney – Sabourin – Kastelic6:00
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Gaudette – Formenton – Stützle11:10
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Zaitsev15:01
xG 0.78–0.34 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Chabot – Brannstrom2:47
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Chabot17:18
xG 0.82–1.13 (42%)attempts 16–29goals 1–4
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).