Sat, Feb 26, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 10, Detroit Red Wings 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 315 | 412 | 312 | 1039 |
| DET | 18 | 110 | 515 | 733 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:52TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Justin Holl, Ondrej Kase · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 6:18TORMichael BuntingAssists: Justin Holl, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.34 xG2–0
- P1 10:33DETLucas RaymondAssists: Marc Staal, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P1 11:06TORDavid KampfAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Alexander Kerfoot · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 0:33TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews, Michael Bunting · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P2 4:13TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews, Michael Bunting · Snap, 0.10 xG5–1
- P2 9:19TORMitch MarnerAssists: Michael Bunting, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–1
- P2 13:47DETSam GagnerUnassisted · Deflected, 0.02 xG6–2
- P2 18:38TORAuston MatthewsAssists: TJ Brodie, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.09 xG7–2
- P3 0:35DETFilip HronekAssists: Marc Staal, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.01 xG7–3
- P3 2:09DETCarter RowneyAssists: Filip Hronek, Adam Erne · Tip-in, 0.07 xG7–4
- P3 4:42DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Filip Hronek, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.01 xG7–5
- P3 5:21DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Moritz Seider, Joseph Veleno · Tip-in, 0.10 xG7–6
- P3 7:04TORIlya MikheyevGWGAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Ilya Lyubushkin · Snap, 0.20 xG8–6
- P3 7:45DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.05 xG8–7
- P3 10:33TOROndrej KaseSHAssists: David Kampf, Justin Holl · Snap, 0.23 xG9–7
- P3 15:41TORMitch MarnerAssists: Michael Bunting · Snap, 0.32 xG10–7
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:57TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:28TORNick Robertson: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:23TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews13:00
xG 1.53–0.48 (76%)attempts 26–11goals 6–3
- Tavares – Nylander – Kase13:52
xG 0.58–0.24 (70%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Spezza – Simmonds – Robertson7:23
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Kampf – Mikheyev11:41
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Holl14:55
xG 1.04–0.20 (84%)attempts 17–11goals 4–2
- Rielly – Liljegren15:55
xG 1.30–0.89 (59%)attempts 23–20goals 2–5
- Sandin – Lyubushkin15:33
xG 0.52–0.26 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Zadina – Raymond13:19
xG 0.63–0.43 (59%)attempts 15–9goals 3–2
- Gagner – Rowney – Erne9:09
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
- Namestnikov – Rasmussen – Veleno11:35
xG 0.22–0.61 (27%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
- Bertuzzi – Fabbri – Suter11:11
xG 0.19–0.70 (21%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Staal – Hronek14:42
xG 0.58–0.91 (39%)attempts 16–13goals 5–4
- Leddy – Seider20:59
xG 0.63–1.19 (35%)attempts 16–28goals 2–2
- DeKeyser – Lindstrom15:33
xG 0.15–0.87 (15%)attempts 10–17goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).