Thu, Apr 28, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 111 | 06 | 213 | 330 |
| CAR | 311 | 110 | 215 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:44CAREthan BearAssists: Brendan Smith, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 5:33CARMartin NecasAssists: Ian Cole, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 12:53CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P1 13:55NJDFabian ZetterlundAssists: Pavel Zacha, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 17:27CARTeuvo TeravainenGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 3:14CARSteven LorentzAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–5
- P3 7:32CARJordan MartinookAssists: Brady Skjei, Derek Stepan · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–6
- P3 14:17NJDJesper BrattAssists: Nolan Foote, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–6
- P3 15:44NJDJimmy VeseyAssists: Nathan Bastian · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:49NJDKevin Bahl: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:52CARNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:15NJDNathan Bastian: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:30CARDerek Stepan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:25NJDNathan Bastian: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boqvist won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestVesey – Bastian – McLeod9:02
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Zacha – Zetterlund – Foote11:15
xG 0.53–0.59 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Kuokkanen – Sharangovich – Mercer9:19
xG 0.25–0.54 (31%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
- Bratt – Boqvist – Holtz9:36
xG 0.65–1.47 (31%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Okhotiuk14:21
xG 0.63–0.54 (54%)attempts 16–12goals 0–3
- Severson – Graves13:12
xG 0.68–0.80 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Hamilton – Bahl15:09
xG 0.54–0.95 (36%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Lorentz – Jarvis9:34
xG 1.14–0.53 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Teravainen – Domi8:27
xG 0.79–0.28 (74%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Martinook – Necas – Kotkaniemi11:00
xG 0.83–0.48 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 3–2
- Stepan – Niederreiter – Fast10:01
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce14:56
xG 1.26–0.51 (71%)attempts 21–12goals 3–0
- Cole – DeAngelo6:08
xG 0.88–0.26 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Cole – Bear10:32
xG 0.86–0.37 (70%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).