Fri, Apr 29, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 15 | 17 | 09 | 221 |
| DAL | 05 | 210 | 24 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:33ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Sam Steel, Jamie Drysdale · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 3:13DALThomas HarleyAssists: Radek Faksa, Joel Kiviranta · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 5:45DALJoel HanleyAssists: Radek Faksa, Jani Hakanpää · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 15:41ANATroy TerryAssists: Adam Henrique, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 9:56DALJason RobertsonPPGWGAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:00DALVladislav NamestnikovENAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jake Oettinger · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:36ANAAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:54DALThomas Harley: Interference2 min
- P3 9:22ANATrevor Zegras: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Terry – Zegras5:38
xG 0.45–0.08 (84%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Robinson – Milano – Zegras6:19
xG 0.26–0.07 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Steel – Lettieri – Comtois6:25
xG 0.08–0.52 (13%)attempts 3–11goals 1–1
- Henrique – Simon – Terry7:28
xG 0.09–0.66 (12%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSustr – Benoit11:23
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Drysdale13:06
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Shattenkirk – Mahura12:37
xG 0.26–1.04 (20%)attempts 8–21goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson13:08
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Namestnikov – Raffl3:58
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Glendening – Raffl5:15
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta2:40
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Hanley13:01
xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Lindell – Harley15:28
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Suter – Heiskanen21:17
xG 0.56–0.63 (47%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).