Fri, Apr 29, 2022·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Nashville Predators 4, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 410 | 09 | 014 | 433 |
| ARI | 16 | 29 | 212 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:25NSHColton SissonsAssists: Roman Josi, Dante Fabbro · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 2:06NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Philip Tomasino, Jeremy Davies · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 2:51NSHEeli TolvanenUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–0
- P1 6:57NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–0
- P1 13:21ARIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.00 xG4–1
- P2 14:25ARITravis BoydAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Kyle Capobianco · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 18:24ARIJack McBainAssists: Antoine Roussel, Loui Eriksson · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 1:51ARIMichael CarconeAssists: J.J. Moser, Nate Smith · Slap, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 10:27ARIShayne GostisbehereGWGAssists: Alex Galchenyuk · Slap, 0.01 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:21ARIBokondji Imama: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:21NSHMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:17ARIVictor Soderstrom: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:45NSHMikael Granlund: Interference2 min
- P3 2:58NSHMatt Duchene: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 6:55ARITravis Boyd: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Luff – Tolvanen8:38
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg12:34
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot8:23
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
- Johansen – Kunin – Tomasino8:16
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Benning8:53
xG 0.77–0.28 (74%)attempts 12–8goals 1–4
- Carrier – Davies11:07
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Josi – Carrier2:45
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Roussel – McBain8:26
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Hayton12:48
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Galchenyuk – O'Brien – Imama3:32
xG 0.04–0.17 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Kessel – Carcone – Smith8:00
xG 0.16–0.51 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stralman – Gostisbehere17:39
xG 0.71–0.77 (48%)attempts 16–20goals 3–2
- Capobianco – Moser10:41
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Dineen – Soderstrom12:08
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).