Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 13, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Arizona Coyotes 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 6

Away

Arizona Coyotes

2

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.

PIT winsARI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ARI04114110228
PIT316123214653

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:22PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 4:12PITJason ZuckerAssists: Danton Heinen, Jeff Petry · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P1 5:10PITJake GuentzelPPGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
  4. P2 16:10ARINick RitchiePPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
  5. P2 19:11PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–4
  6. P3 4:46ARINick RitchiePPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
  7. P3 15:01PITBryan RustAssists: Jason Zucker, Marcus Pettersson · Poke, 0.14 xG2–5
  8. P3 17:37PITKasperi KapanenAssists: Danton Heinen, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–6
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 2:06ARINick Schmaltz: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P1 5:03ARIZack Kassian: Holding2 min · PPG
  3. P1 7:29ARILiam O'Brien: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 13:33PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Interference2 min
  5. P1 19:47ARINick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 19:47PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 19:47ARINick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 12:48PITJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 15:35PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min · PPG
  10. P2 19:03ARIChristian Fischer: Hooking2 min · PPG
  11. P3 3:46PITMarcus Pettersson: Interference2 min · PPG
  12. P3 7:57PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 9:39ARIShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ARI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
49% to win51% to win
← ARI attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Boyd won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ARIPIT
28Shots on goal53
2.6Expected goals5.3
48Shot attempts75
27Faceoffs won38
5Power plays6
14Penalty minutes12
35Hits30
9Blocked shots15
5Giveaways6
9Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Arizona Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. Kassian – O'Brien – McBain2:21

    xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

  2. O'Brien – Fischer – McBain4:02

    xG 0.03–0.09 (28%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  3. Kassian – Boyd – Keller2:37

    xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  4. Fischer – Crouse – Hayton2:02

    xG 0.01–0.26 (4%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. Gostisbehere – Moser2:10

    xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  2. Mayo – Timmins8:05

    xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0

  3. Stecher – Timmins2:11

    xG 0.21–0.36 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestMalkin – Zucker – Rust9:20

    xG 1.12–0.22 (84%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0

  2. Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel11:41

    xG 1.11–0.26 (81%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0

  3. Carter – Kapanen – Heinen9:09

    xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0

  4. Archibald – McGinn – Poehling7:17

    xG 0.23–0.10 (69%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestLetang – Dumoulin12:57

    xG 1.38–0.11 (93%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0

  2. Petry – Pettersson12:31

    xG 1.03–0.24 (81%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0

  3. Joseph – Rutta10:38

    xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 5.3 xGARI 2.6 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITARI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 51/100 · #733 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.86 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
ARI 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.

PIT winsARI wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − ARI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).