Sat, Oct 15, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Arizona Coyotes 3, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 04 | 114 | 26 | 324 |
| BOS | 212 | 17 | 324 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:03BOSPavel ZachaPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Craig Smith · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 18:24BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Trent Frederic, A.J. Greer · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 6:21ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Travis Boyd, Matias Maccelli · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 14:03BOSNick FolignoAssists: Connor Clifton · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 2:58ARIJoshua BrownAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Dylan Guenther · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 5:42ARIShayne GostisbehereSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 9:29BOSDerek ForbortGWGAssists: David Krejci, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 12:49BOSA.J. GreerAssists: Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 17:12BOSA.J. GreerENAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:03ARINick Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
- P1 2:32ARITroy Stecher: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:10BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:10ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:37BOSTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:43BOSHampus Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:57BOSTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:55ARITroy Stecher: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00BOSA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Boyd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – O'Brien – Fischer8:04
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Boyd – Crouse – Keller10:33
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Ritchie – Hayton – Guenther7:14
xG 0.11–0.59 (16%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
- Kassian – McBain – Maccelli7:23
xG 0.02–0.68 (3%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brown – Mayo2:42
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Stecher2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Mayo – Stecher5:05
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Hall – Pastrnak6:11
xG 0.68–0.09 (88%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Nosek – Lauko9:11
xG 0.58–0.04 (94%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Coyle – Greer – Frederic8:43
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Krejci – Smith – Zacha3:02
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Lindholm7:16
xG 0.67–0.04 (95%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Reilly – Zboril7:25
xG 0.79–0.27 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Clifton4:19
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).