Sat, Oct 15, 2022·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 5, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 411 | 14 | 522 |
| NJD | 19 | 122 | 08 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45NJDDougie HamiltonAssists: Jesper Bratt, Jonas Siegenthaler · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 1:30DETBen ChiarotAssists: Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 4:34DETJakub VranaAssists: Lucas Raymond, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 4:44NJDMiles WoodAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 17:02DETDavid PerronGWGAssists: Jakub Vrana, Olli Maatta · Snap, 0.23 xG3–2
- P2 19:59DETDylan LarkinAssists: Andrew Copp, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.28 xG4–2
- P3 10:55DETDominik KubalikAssists: Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.08 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:52NJDMiles Wood: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:57NJDBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:46DETElmer Soderblom: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 11:32DETLucas Raymond: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:32NJDJesper Bratt: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:03DETBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:07DETOskar Sundqvist: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:38NJDTomas Tatar: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:51NJDTomas Tatar: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:49NJDDawson Mercer: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:49DETOskar Sundqvist: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Kubalik – Larkin – Raymond3:36
xG 0.18–0.17 (50%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Erne – Suter3:09
xG 0.07–0.09 (46%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Rasmussen – Soderblom9:54
xG 0.37–0.56 (40%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Erne – Suter2:04
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Chiarot – Seider11:32
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- Chiarot – Maatta3:02
xG 0.09–0.25 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Maatta – Hronek12:21
xG 0.58–0.94 (38%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Wood – Zetterlund6:59
xG 0.47–0.09 (84%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Bratt – Sharangovich – Hughes2:32
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Tatar – Hughes – Mercer6:11
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Tatar – Bratt – Hughes3:26
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler11:10
xG 0.80–0.34 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Severson – Graves8:25
xG 0.65–0.50 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 0–3
- Severson – Marino2:03
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).