Mon, Oct 17, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 6, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 210 | 118 | 310 | 638 |
| MIN | 111 | 116 | 112 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:30COLBen MeyersAssists: Erik Johnson, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 4:14MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Calen Addison, Tyson Jost · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 15:08COLSamuel GirardAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 6:09MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Calen Addison, Matt Boldy · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 11:59COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 2:02COLJosh MansonGWGAssists: Andrew Cogliano, J.T. Compher · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 4:17MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Calen Addison, Mats Zuccarello · Deflected, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 14:54COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Valeri Nichushkin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 19:39COLValeri NichushkinENUnassisted · Snap, 0.52 xG6–3
Penalties (12)
- P2 5:04COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:37MINMarcus Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:27COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:27MINRyan Hartman: Interference2 min
- P2 17:07COLEvan Rodrigues: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:22COLKurtis MacDermid: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:23MINBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:23COLJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:02MINMason Shaw: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:02COLSamuel Girard: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:12MINJoel Eriksson Ek: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:44COLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNichushkin – Rodrigues – Newhook9:30
xG 0.67–0.17 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Compher – O'Connor9:08
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Sedlak – MacDermid – Meyers4:24
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:12
xG 0.45–0.77 (37%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard8:50
xG 0.78–0.12 (87%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Manson – Byram10:41
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar12:51
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Hartman – Eriksson Ek10:49
xG 0.70–0.28 (71%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Shaw – Dewar4:34
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Jost2:01
xG 0.02–0.20 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Jost10:05
xG 0.06–0.62 (9%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Middleton17:07
xG 0.42–0.82 (34%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Addison11:05
xG 0.13–0.61 (17%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
- Brodin – Dumba14:21
xG 0.50–1.08 (32%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).