Wed, Oct 19, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 17 | 17 | 119 | 333 |
| FLA | 214 | 013 | 29 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:06FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Radko Gudas · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 8:38FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Gustav Forsling, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 16:31PHINick SeelerAssists: Kevin Hayes, Zack MacEwen · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 15:16PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 3:51FLARudolfs BalcersAssists: Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 9:08FLAJosh MahuraGWGAssists: Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 19:57PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Kevin Hayes, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:02PHITony DeAngelo: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:02PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:45FLAPatric Hornqvist: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:27FLASam Reinhart: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:45FLANick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:55PHINick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:49FLACarter Verhaeghe: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:23FLARudolfs Balcers: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:29FLAGustav Forsling: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Laczynski – Cates5:52
xG 0.40–0.06 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Laughton – Allison – Frost6:01
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Hayes – Laughton – Konecny2:00
xG 0.07–0.04 (60%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – MacEwen – Cates7:45
xG 0.03–0.39 (7%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Zamula10:09
xG 0.60–0.43 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- DeAngelo – Provorov12:13
xG 0.40–0.57 (41%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
- Braun – Sanheim12:38
xG 0.02–0.46 (5%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart10:20
xG 0.66–0.12 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Bennett – Balcers – Tkachuk9:04
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- White – Luostarinen – Lundell7:36
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Cousins – Lomberg4:58
xG 0.13–0.40 (25%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura7:33
xG 0.58–0.05 (93%)attempts 13–3goals 3–0
- Forsling – Kiersted3:21
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Forsling – Carlsson4:45
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).