Thu, Oct 20, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Arizona Coyotes 2, Montréal Canadiens 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 05 | 011 | 211 | 227 |
| MTL | 311 | 212 | 17 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Kirby Dach · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 4:13MTLCole CaufieldUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 7:17MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: David Savard · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 8:17MTLJuraj SlafkovskýUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 18:27MTLNick SuzukiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–5
- P3 6:21ARIJ.J. MoserAssists: Travis Boyd, Lawson Crouse · Slap, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 8:18ARITravis BoydAssists: Lawson Crouse, Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 16:36MTLSean MonahanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:21MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:21ARIZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:17MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:57MTLKaiden Guhle: Holding2 min
- P2 18:27ARIClayton Keller: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 0:54ARIJ.J. Moser: Holding2 min
- P3 11:48MTLDavid Savard: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – Crouse – Keller13:52
xG 0.94–0.77 (55%)attempts 17–12goals 2–1
- Kassian – McBain – Maccelli2:53
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – O'Brien – Fischer10:22
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kassian – Hayton – Guenther6:11
xG 0.05–0.00 (91%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayo – Moser11:54
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Stecher – Välimäki8:50
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Stecher – Moser4:06
xG 0.10–0.17 (36%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Drouin – Dach10:11
xG 0.79–0.48 (62%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Hoffman – Evans – Slafkovský10:00
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Gallagher – Dvorak11:29
xG 0.27–0.41 (39%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Monahan – Suzuki – Caufield11:31
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris15:03
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Savard – Guhle15:39
xG 0.75–0.90 (46%)attempts 13–17goals 1–2
- Wideman – Xhekaj14:04
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).