Thu, Oct 20, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 212 | 05 | 07 | 224 |
| OTT | 07 | 215 | 322 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:01WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Marcus Johansson, John Carlson · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 10:35WSHAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Conor Sheary · Slap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 5:48OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 7:39OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 5:53OTTShane PintoGWGAssists: Tyler Motte, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:23OTTTyler MotteENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG2–4
- P3 19:52OTTAlex DeBrincatENAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:06OTTJake Sanderson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:54OTTTravis Hamonic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 3:47WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:47OTTTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:42WSHT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:29WSHT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:48WSHConor Sheary: Interference2 min
- P2 9:49OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:57OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:30OTTParker Kelly: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:30WSHConnor McMichael: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:47WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Johansson – Mantha – McMichael5:56
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Dowd – Hathaway – Protas7:47
xG 0.09–0.26 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Oshie – Strome – Snively10:06
xG 0.19–0.40 (32%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Eller – Sheary10:57
xG 0.28–0.62 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Fehérváry9:19
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Orlov – Gustafsson5:37
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen2:03
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – DeBrincat – Norris11:03
xG 0.87–0.13 (87%)attempts 21–3goals 0–0
- Motte – Joseph – Pinto8:25
xG 0.74–0.15 (83%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle9:53
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly5:24
xG 0.03–0.18 (14%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub15:02
xG 0.42–0.05 (89%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson11:13
xG 0.88–0.54 (62%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Holden – Brannstrom8:15
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).