Thu, Oct 20, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
New Jersey Devils 4, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 210 | 220 | 443 |
| NYI | 03 | 09 | 15 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:35NJDJack HughesAssists: Damon Severson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 8:09NJDOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 15:28NJDOndrej PalatAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 16:44NYIAnders LeeAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 19:25NJDNico HischierENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:15NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:09NJDJohn Marino: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:37NJDBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:56NYIAnders Lee: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:45NYICal Clutterbuck: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:42NYIAdam Pelech: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:42NJDDawson Mercer: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Haula – Wood8:28
xG 0.95–0.34 (74%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Sharangovich – Hughes – Mercer8:09
xG 0.42–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Bastian – McLeod – Sharangovich3:20
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hischier9:44
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Severson12:14
xG 1.06–0.36 (75%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler11:21
xG 0.73–0.20 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Marino – Bahl4:32
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Palmieri – Barzal – Beauvillier4:02
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:41
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Nelson – Beauvillier – Wahlstrom2:56
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Lee – Barzal4:11
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Dobson – Romanov15:06
xG 0.50–0.64 (44%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock15:18
xG 0.23–0.60 (27%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
- Mayfield – Salo9:38
xG 0.02–1.12 (2%)attempts 3–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).