Fri, Oct 21, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Seattle Kraken 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 011 | 213 | 114 | 338 |
| COL | 08 | 17 | 15 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:38SEAJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 2:00SEAJared McCannAssists: Carson Soucy · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 5:55COLEvan RodriguesAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 6:58COLBowen ByramSHAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Logan O'Connor · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 12:06SEAKarson KuhlmanGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:09COLAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:09SEAJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:09COLKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:16COLAlex Newhook: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:19SEAJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
- P2 17:17SEAJustin Schultz: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:15COLBowen Byram: Interference2 min
- P3 5:57COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:07COLAlex Newhook: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – McCann – Kuhlman6:09
xG 0.74–0.05 (93%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky – Wennberg11:39
xG 0.76–0.43 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Beniers10:50
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Donato – Tanev – Wright7:47
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Borgen12:40
xG 1.00–0.34 (75%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn13:29
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – Larsson2:05
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNichushkin – Rodrigues – Newhook4:01
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Compher – O'Connor4:50
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Compher – Nichushkin – Kaut3:08
xG 0.02–0.06 (24%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:23
xG 0.36–0.60 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Byram2:12
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Girard – Byram2:48
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard3:22
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).