Sun, Oct 23, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Anaheim Ducks 1, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 09 | 012 | 133 |
| DET | 214 | 19 | 218 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 5:31ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Troy Terry, Adam Henrique · Poke, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 13:28DETDavid PerronPPGWGAssists: Filip Hronek, Dominik Kubalik · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 4:07DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Adam Erne, Pius Suter · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 3:44DETDominik KubalikPPAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 14:24DETElmer SoderblomAssists: Michael Rasmussen · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:18ANANathan Beaulieu: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:09DETGustav Lindstrom: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:10ANAJohn Gibson: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:10ANAJohn Gibson: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:10DETAdam Erne: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:51ANAMaxime Comtois: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:51ANAMaxime Comtois: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:51DETOskar Sundqvist: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:33DETFilip Zadina: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:52DETAndrew Copp: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:43DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:19ANAMason McTavish: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 4:15ANAMax Jones: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Terry – Zegras3:42
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Henrique – Terry – Jones4:04
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Grant – Jones – Regenda5:48
xG 0.32–0.28 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Comtois – Lundeström6:45
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Drysdale15:45
xG 1.35–0.54 (72%)attempts 24–9goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Beaulieu13:33
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Klingberg13:06
xG 0.24–0.87 (21%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestErne – Suter – Veleno10:31
xG 0.68–0.12 (85%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Rasmussen – Soderblom9:15
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 2–14goals 1–0
- Perron – Copp – Zadina8:05
xG 0.75–0.63 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Copp – Zadina – Raymond2:20
xG 0.05–0.24 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Lindstrom13:55
xG 1.15–0.43 (73%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Seider14:37
xG 0.40–0.68 (37%)attempts 6–18goals 1–1
- Maatta – Hronek13:26
xG 0.35–0.88 (28%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).