Tue, Oct 25, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Arizona Coyotes 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 24 | 211 | 24 | 619 |
| CBJ | 011 | 08 | 314 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:24ARIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Travis Boyd, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 15:52ARIZack KassianAssists: Nick Ritchie · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 7:42ARIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Clayton Keller, Joshua Brown · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 15:22ARIDylan GuentherPPGWGAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–0
- P3 2:10ARIJack McBainAssists: Christian Fischer, Liam O'Brien · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–0
- P3 6:45CBJJohnny GaudreauAssists: Zach Werenski, Jake Bean · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–1
- P3 17:24CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Cole Sillinger · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 19:40ARILawson CrouseENAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.75 xG6–2
- P3 19:51CBJAndrew PeekeAssists: Sean Kuraly, Jake Bean · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 9:00CBJGustav Nyquist: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:29ARIMatias Maccelli: Interference2 min
- P2 3:15CBJMathieu Olivier: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:35CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:16ARINick Ritchie: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:55CBJJake Bean: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:06ARIPatrik Nemeth: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:09ARIBarrett Hayton: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:11CBJEgor Chinakhov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 15:05ARIBarrett Hayton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:05CBJPatrik Laine: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:05ARIJ.J. Moser: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:05ARIZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:05CBJErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Sillinger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Ritchie – Hayton4:59
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Kassian – Boyd – Keller2:53
xG 0.02–0.09 (19%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Boyd – Crouse – Keller7:06
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Maccelli – Guenther4:51
xG 0.07–0.48 (12%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gostisbehere – Brown11:44
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Välimäki – Moser12:05
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Stecher10:45
xG 0.15–0.86 (15%)attempts 4–18goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Jenner – Laine10:45
xG 0.81–0.20 (80%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Roslovic – Laine4:12
xG 0.45–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Chinakhov – Sillinger5:40
xG 0.24–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Voracek – Nyquist – Jenner2:24
xG 0.02–0.00 (95%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Boqvist7:16
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Boqvist3:19
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Peeke5:46
xG 0.35–0.07 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).