Tue, Oct 25, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Colorado Avalanche 3, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 120 | 07 | 114 | 03 | 2 | 344 |
| NYR | 011 | 115 | 117 | 03 | 1 | 246 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:40COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 18:06NYRBarclay GoodrowAssists: Jacob Trouba, Sammy Blais · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 0:59COLLogan O'ConnorSHAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 14:03NYRAdam FoxAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 2. NYR Kaapo Kakko stopped
- 3. COL Cale Makar stopped
- 4. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 5. COL Mikko Rantanen scored
- 6. NYR Artemi Panarin scored
- 7. COL Evan Rodrigues scored
- 8. NYR Alexis Lafrenière stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:25NYRKaapo Kakko: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:11NYRAlexis Lafrenière: High sticking2 min
- P1 0:00COLDryden Hunt: Interference2 min
- P2 9:33NYRJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:10COLJ.T. Compher: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:24COLJosh Manson: Holding2 min
- OT 3:31COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen4:24
xG 0.51–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:44
xG 0.78–0.58 (57%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Rodrigues – Newhook6:17
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Rodrigues – Newhook3:37
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:59
xG 1.27–0.49 (72%)attempts 22–14goals 0–1
- Girard – Byram2:18
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard10:43
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:15
xG 1.06–1.03 (51%)attempts 26–13goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Kravtsov8:20
xG 0.25–0.28 (48%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carpenter – Blais5:42
xG 0.02–0.11 (17%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko10:47
xG 0.24–0.69 (26%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller18:47
xG 1.09–0.68 (61%)attempts 25–13goals 1–0
- Hajek – Schneider7:51
xG 0.12–0.48 (20%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren12:52
xG 0.26–0.79 (25%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).