Thu, Oct 27, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Minnesota Wild 4, Ottawa Senators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 213 | 117 | 110 | 440 |
| OTT | 111 | 09 | 19 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47OTTAlex DeBrincatAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Hamonic · Slap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 7:53MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Calen Addison, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 18:24MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Frederick Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 4:25MINRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 4:03OTTThomas ChabotPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 17:39MINFrederick GaudreauENAssists: Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:08OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:08MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:38MINMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:38OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 6:51OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
- P1 10:35MINMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:36OTTDerick Brassard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:13MINCalen Addison: Holding2 min
- P3 2:58MINCalen Addison: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:18MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:43OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:43MINRyan Hartman: Interference2 min
- P3 8:29OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
- P3 17:24MINMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:04OTTThomas Chabot: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Kastelic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Gaudreau – Kaprizov10:13
xG 0.87–0.17 (83%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Hartman – Eriksson Ek – Duhaime6:05
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Steel – Shaw – Dewar7:29
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Boldy – Rossi7:41
xG 0.06–0.40 (13%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton12:06
xG 0.73–0.28 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Brodin – Addison10:04
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin3:57
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Brassard – DeBrincat10:42
xG 0.95–0.87 (52%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle9:58
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 13–6goals 0–2
- Motte – Joseph – Pinto8:09
xG 0.11–0.28 (29%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly4:58
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – Sanderson10:08
xG 0.84–0.80 (51%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Chabot – Brannstrom3:22
xG 0.09–0.07 (58%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Zaitsev – Brannstrom7:49
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).