Thu, Oct 27, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 2, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 18 | 113 | 014 | 235 |
| NSH | 115 | 210 | 317 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07STLRobert ThomasAssists: Justin Faulk · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 16:56NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Yakov Trenin, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 6:24STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Colton Parayko, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 15:47NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 16:24NSHZachary SanfordGWGAssists: Cole Smith · Wrap-around, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 1:11NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Filip Forsberg, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 13:06NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Matt Duchene · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 15:14NSHMikael GranlundENAssists: Matt Duchene, Cole Smith · Wrist, 0.76 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:58NSHDante Fabbro: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:52STLBrayden Schenn: Holding2 min
- P2 4:28NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:05NSHDante Fabbro: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:44STLNathan Walker: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Kyrou – Thomas12:04
xG 0.71–0.51 (58%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Leivo – Barbashev – Toropchenko8:14
xG 0.16–0.27 (36%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Walker – Acciari9:29
xG 0.45–0.61 (42%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Neighbours10:21
xG 0.66–0.86 (43%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Rosen3:30
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Rosen7:07
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug10:00
xG 0.81–0.73 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 1–3
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Johansen – Forsberg9:21
xG 0.72–0.24 (75%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- McCarron – Sanford – Smith4:49
xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Granlund – Niederreiter – Glass7:05
xG 0.08–0.25 (24%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot8:20
xG 0.36–0.65 (36%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Josi2:35
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Carrier10:57
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Josi – Ekholm2:13
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).