Sat, Oct 29, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 1, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 114 | 07 | 010 | 131 |
| DET | 115 | 19 | 01 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:51DETLucas RaymondAssists: Adam Erne, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 19:55DETLucas RaymondPPGWGAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Dylan Larkin · Wrap-around, 0.14 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 6:54MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:16DETElmer Soderblom: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:51MINMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:56MINMason Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:56DETFilip Hronek: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Eriksson Ek – Duhaime9:29
xG 0.62–0.12 (84%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Gaudreau – Kaprizov9:47
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Foligno – Boldy – Rossi8:54
xG 0.22–0.18 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Steel – Shaw – Dewar6:57
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin8:07
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Middleton – Addison7:27
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Merrill – Dumba17:00
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Suter – Soderblom8:17
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Erne – Larkin – Raymond11:18
xG 0.47–0.48 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Luff – Veleno – Zadina6:35
xG 0.13–0.25 (35%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Perron – Kubalik – Copp9:01
xG 0.22–0.48 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Hronek17:03
xG 0.52–0.06 (90%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider13:38
xG 0.32–0.68 (32%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
- Hagg – Oesterle12:19
xG 0.32–0.73 (31%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).