Sat, Oct 29, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Montréal Canadiens 7, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 311 | 38 | 725 |
| STL | 110 | 29 | 111 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:47STLJordan KyrouAssists: Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 15:08MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Jordan Harris, Cole Caufield · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 5:10STLNoel AcciariAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 9:38STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 10:56MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Kirby Dach · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 13:05MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Chris Wideman, Brendan Gallagher · Slap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 15:46MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Kirby Dach · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 0:41MTLChristian DvorakGWGUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 1:21MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Josh Anderson, Jordan Harris · Tip-in, 0.12 xG6–3
- P3 2:47STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–4
- P3 18:25MTLChristian DvorakENAssists: Sean Monahan, Jake Allen · Wrist, 0.37 xG7–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:27STLNick Leddy: Holding2 min
- P2 9:31MTLJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:17STLIvan Barbashev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:24STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:26MTLMike Hoffman: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:34MTLNick Suzuki: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:34STLTorey Krug: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Dach – Caufield9:40
xG 0.46–0.40 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 2–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak11:15
xG 0.66–0.60 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Armia – Evans – Pezzetta2:57
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Armia – Monahan8:27
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris14:52
xG 1.06–0.90 (54%)attempts 14–15goals 3–0
- Wideman – Xhekaj10:20
xG 0.52–0.62 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Savard – Guhle17:15
xG 0.40–0.78 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Acciari – Toropchenko8:03
xG 0.84–0.03 (97%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas11:30
xG 0.59–0.55 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Kyrou11:06
xG 0.29–0.59 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 1–2
- Walker – Barbashev – Neighbours8:11
xG 0.13–0.57 (19%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Faulk10:31
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
- Leddy – Parayko4:32
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug6:59
xG 0.44–0.26 (62%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).