Mon, Oct 31, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 05 | 27 | 07 | 01 | 1 | 220 |
| CAR | 111 | 16 | 015 | 03 | 2 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:27CARStefan NoesenPPAssists: Brent Burns, Martin Necas · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 1:23WSHDylan StromeAssists: Nick Jensen, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 8:57WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 15:42CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Paul Stastny, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CAR Brent Burns scored
- 2. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 3. CAR Andrei Svechnikov scored
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 5. CAR Martin Necas stopped
- 6. WSH Dylan Strome stopped
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:15WSHAliaksei Protas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:10CARBrett Pesce: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:02CARStefan Noesen: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 4:01WSHNic Dowd: Interference2 min
- P2 7:39CARBrett Pesce: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:50WSHMarcus Johansson: Clipping2 min
- P2 18:23WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:09CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:11WSHDarcy Kuemper: Interference2 min
- P3 8:11CARMartin Necas: Embellishment2 min
- P3 13:50CARPaul Stastny: Interference2 min
- P3 13:50WSHNic Dowd: Embellishment2 min
- P3 18:05WSHMarcus Johansson: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:09WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Sheary – Strome7:16
xG 0.82–0.05 (94%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Dowd – Hathaway – Malenstyn7:41
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Johansson – Kuznetsov – McMichael5:10
xG 0.02–0.11 (12%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Mantha – Protas7:32
xG 0.02–0.19 (11%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Gustafsson9:21
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry11:53
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Orlov – Jensen2:03
xG 0.00–0.07 (5%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNecas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov7:36
xG 0.40–0.01 (99%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook9:31
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Noesen5:10
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis6:28
xG 0.01–0.46 (2%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChatfield – Coghlan8:53
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce14:54
xG 0.54–0.59 (47%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Burns – Slavin11:35
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).