Tue, Nov 1, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Seattle Kraken 5, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 110 | 18 | 38 | 526 |
| CGY | 07 | 220 | 213 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:58SEACarson SoucyAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 6:28CGYNikita ZadorovAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 8:14CGYNazem KadriAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 13:10SEAMorgan GeekieAssists: Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 1:34CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 1:51CGYTrevor LewisAssists: Brett Ritchie · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 8:31SEADaniel SprongPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 11:26SEAYanni GourdeSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG4–4
- P3 13:26SEAMatty BeniersGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:45SEAVince Dunn: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:09CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:33CGYNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:41CGYNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:41SEAJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:19SEAJustin Schultz: Interference2 min
- P2 8:14SEAJordan Eberle: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 3:08CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
- P3 7:44CGYBrett Ritchie: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:52SEAJustin Schultz: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky – Wennberg8:56
xG 0.07–0.32 (18%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Donato – Sprong – Geekie4:46
xG 0.05–0.32 (14%)attempts 1–7goals 1–1
- Gourde – McCann – Tanev7:41
xG 0.34–0.65 (35%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Eberle – Schwartz – Beniers10:07
xG 0.14–0.48 (23%)attempts 4–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Soucy – Borgen11:39
xG 0.33–0.57 (37%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Schultz – Oleksiak9:02
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 7–7goals 1–2
- Larsson – Dunn15:44
xG 0.22–0.53 (29%)attempts 10–20goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Dube3:36
xG 0.33–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Lucic – Toffoli – Lindholm8:26
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Mangiapane8:50
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane3:00
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Zadorov10:13
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 13–8goals 4–1
- Tanev – Weegar15:09
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson14:24
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).