Thu, Nov 3, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Montréal Canadiens 2, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 111 | 04 | 01 | 222 |
| WPG | 110 | 112 | 011 | 13 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Cole Caufield, David Savard · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 17:28WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 4:54MTLKirby DachAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.37 xG2–1
- P2 5:35WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Dylan Samberg · Slap, 0.21 xG2–2
- OT 1:45WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:17MTLCole Caufield: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:40MTLRem Pitlick: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:35MTLCole Caufield: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 5:56WPGSam Gagner: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:33MTLRem Pitlick: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:32MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Interference2 min
- P3 9:48WPGDylan Samberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Dach – Caufield12:32
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 7–16goals 2–0
- Evans – Pitlick – Slafkovský6:25
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Armia – Drouin – Monahan10:33
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak11:47
xG 0.47–0.87 (35%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kovacevic – Harris11:40
xG 0.75–0.71 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Edmundson – Xhekaj14:03
xG 0.62–0.73 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Savard – Guhle14:32
xG 0.36–0.72 (33%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Dubois – Perfetti10:19
xG 0.98–0.49 (67%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Appleton4:43
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Scheifele – Connor10:21
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby2:55
xG 0.10–0.03 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Samberg11:40
xG 0.79–0.10 (89%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Dillon – Schmidt16:48
xG 0.83–0.62 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk15:06
xG 0.74–1.01 (42%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).